Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x9696…2bc3 sports 1360 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,952 (+5%) realized +$3,698 · open +$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%738W / 588L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$824est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,090
other 19% +$856
finance 1% −$145
world 0% −$63
politics 0% −$25
tech 0% +$14
crypto 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +6.8% -3.4% 63% 57% -4.7%
≤30d 749 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 51% -10.7%
≤90d 1326 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 52% -7.7%
all 1326 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -16.5%
15% -23.7% 42% -24.6%
20% -31.2% 37% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$50 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$6,143
Realized+$3,698
Unrealized+$254
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses738 / 588
Est. fees paid−$824
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1326 / 1360
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 84¢ 94¢ $1,506 $1,695 +$189 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $542 $570 +$28 (+5%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 90¢ 96¢ $450 $479 +$29 (+6%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 89¢ 84¢ $445 $420 −$25 (-6%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $302 $301 −$1 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $168 $181 +$13 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 61¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $45 $100 +$55 (+122%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 99¢ $81 $99 +$18 (+22%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$7 (+9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 75¢ 84¢ $75 $84 +$10 (+13%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 82¢ 82¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 64¢ 40¢ $128 $80 −$48 (-37%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 70¢ 72¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+4%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 70¢ $74 $70 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $81 +$119 +146%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$68 +212%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$5 +72%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 +$56 +129%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $40 +$43 +105%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $74 +$26 +35%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $68 +$82 +122%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $39 +$61 +156%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$12 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $68 +$82 +122%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $70 +$30 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $81 +$119 +146%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $179 +$21 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $77 +$23 +31%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$39 +64%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $35 +$65 +188%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $63 +$37 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 +$55 +124%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $73 +$27 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $136 +$14 +10%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $81 −$31 -38%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $58 −$8 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 72¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 72¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $41 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 47¢ $41 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $41 7h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 39¢ $39 30h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $40 30h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $41 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $81 30h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $81 30h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $81 30h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $81 30h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 72¢ $47 32h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 45¢ $68 33h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 45¢ $68 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $16 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $42 33h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $70 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $17 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $22 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $23 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $23 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $62 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $63 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $41 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $81 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,143.48 · official $6,143.48 (match) · 3500 history records