Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9694…b7ad sports 762 markets active 5h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,889 (+1%) realized +$1,539 · open +$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%454W / 306L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$1,538est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,856
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 58% -18.7%
≤30d 341 +3.1% -6.7% 63% 61% -8.7%
≤90d 760 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 57% -11.7%
all 760 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 57% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 57% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 53% -20.1%
15% -27.4% 41% -27.9%
20% -34.6% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$149 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized+$1,539
Unrealized+$350
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses454 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,538
Open positions3
Markets (closed)760 / 762
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$182
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ 80¢ $350 $440 +$90 (+26%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Titouan Droguet 64¢ 92¢ $300 $427 +$127 (+42%)
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 68¢ 100¢ $280 $413 +$132 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oeiras 3: Moyuka Uchijima vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $300 +$184 +61%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $120 +$87 +73%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $302 +$160 +53%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $250 +$213 +85%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $351 +$143 +41%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $350 +$188 +54%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $300 +$156 +52%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $455 +$227 +50%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $483 −$480 -99%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $454 +$198 +44%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $281 +$97 +34%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $253 +$178 +70%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $283 −$280 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $201 +$53 +26%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $485 +$253 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $450 +$202 +45%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $350 +$215 +61%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $282 +$101 +36%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $290 +$95 +33%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 16 $100 +$61 +61%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $281 −$280 -100%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $242 +$151 +62%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $380 −$380 -100%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $506 +$342 +67%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $294 +$168 +57%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $354 −$350 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $280 +$109 +39%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $282 +$107 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $281 +$100 +36%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $121 +$15 +12%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $251 +$134 +54%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $283 +$407 +144%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $482 −$480 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $381 −$380 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $255 −$252 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $350 +$206 +59%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $351 +$196 +56%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $302 −$300 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $350 +$129 +37%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $120 +$204 +170%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $280 +$104 +37%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $285 −$280 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 65¢ $65 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $218 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $9 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $125 4h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 62¢ $143 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 64¢ $164 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 64¢ $72 5h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 65¢ $143 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $1 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $10 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $52 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $41 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $7 5h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 65¢ $151 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $2 5h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 64¢ $4 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $1 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $3 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $4 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $7 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $12 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $20 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $99 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $99 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 57¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 68¢ $94 5h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 62¢ $4 5h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 64¢ $4 5h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 68¢ $157 5h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 54¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.59 · official $1,239.28 · 3500 history records