Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9694…be2a crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-2%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$20
14 days−$107
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$4
other 30% −$31
politics 21% −$3
culture 9% −$2
crypto 3% −$4
sports 3% −$131
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.6% -6.3% 25% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -18.1% -25.9% 20% 7% -10.7%
≤90d 21 -22.5% -29.8% 24% 5% -11.3%
all 59 -8.0% -16.7% 32% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 2% -10.9%
10% -24.7% 2% -19.4%
15% -32.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage409d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on July 1? No 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $90 +$26 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $811 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $27 $0 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $38 −$37 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 8? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 17? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 4? Mar 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Jan 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 25? Jan 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on December 1? Dec 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 23? Nov 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Nov 05 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 29? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 23 $7 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 July 28–August 3? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Aug 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nice win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jul 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $920 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $921 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $914 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $915 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $920 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $972 1h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $781 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $208 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 6d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $574 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $608 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $811 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $810 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $855 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $90 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $96 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,029 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $251 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $725 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $754 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.95 · official $12.95 (match) · 155 history records