Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9691…d1c7 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% -10.9%
≤30d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% -10.9%
≤90d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% -10.9%
all 10 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 60% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -19.4%
15% -20.2% 40% -27.2%
20% -28.0% 40% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$161 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $319 −$310 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $254 +$60 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $238 +$190 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $249 +$134 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $109 +$127 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$35 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$108 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $313 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $427 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $382 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records