Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9690…f2d5 world 229 markets active 20h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-0%) realized −$316 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%92W / 98L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,286per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22,818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5,072
finance 23% −$11,962
other 14% +$1,217
tech 8% −$327
sports 4% −$4,907
politics 4% +$2,436
crypto 0% −$37
economics 0% −$492
culture 0% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +35.2% +22.4% 89% 78% +18.5%
≤30d 76 -20.8% -28.4% 45% 33% -17.9%
≤90d 161 -1.5% -10.8% 47% 35% -13.4%
all 190 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 34% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 34% -12.6%
10% -20.4% 23% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 18% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,359) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$375 vs −$441 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$22,818
Realized−$316
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses92 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions39
Markets (closed)190 / 229
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$1,286
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 75¢ 98¢ $2,246 $2,933 +$686 (+31%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $2,721 $2,877 +$156 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $2,178 $2,368 +$190 (+9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,533 $1,682 +$149 (+10%)
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 61¢ 98¢ $877 $1,426 +$549 (+63%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes 64¢ 82¢ $1,065 $1,377 +$312 (+29%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 98¢ $951 $978 +$26 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $1,080 $950 −$130 (-12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,000 $950 −$50 (-5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 94¢ $870 $935 +$65 (+7%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 82¢ 98¢ $746 $885 +$138 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $594 $695 +$101 (+17%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 74¢ 98¢ $519 $684 +$165 (+32%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $465 $498 +$33 (+7%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $748 $495 −$253 (-34%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 40¢ 22¢ $718 $407 −$311 (-43%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 50¢ $217 $350 +$133 (+61%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 88¢ $320 $350 +$30 (+9%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 32¢ 16¢ $654 $326 −$329 (-50%)
Will Sweden reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 97¢ $270 $291 +$21 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $280 $250 −$30 (-11%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 83¢ 97¢ $166 $195 +$29 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $179 $188 +$9 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $94 $167 +$73 (+78%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 71¢ 64¢ $142 $127 −$15 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $189 +$132 +70%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $162 +$138 +85%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $156 +$144 +92%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $94 +$93 +99%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $158 +$42 +27%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $696 +$64 +9%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $340 +$60 +18%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $367 −$206 -56%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $711 −$435 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $156 −$156 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $429 +$486 +113%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $444 +$48 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $977 +$23 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $740 +$44 +6%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $202 −$91 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,984 −$354 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $699 +$547 +78%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 16 $520 +$427 +82%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $288 +$12 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,528 +$1,418 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $822 +$648 +79%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $652 +$585 +90%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $3,360 +$1,980 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,292 −$368 -28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $2,084 +$824 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 09 $151 +$26 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $511 −$91 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $760 −$309 -41%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 05 $2,338 +$75 +3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $630 +$270 +43%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,090 +$215 +20%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $3,440 +$120 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,741 +$422 +7%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $147 +$7 +5%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 01 $117 +$20 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $895 +$442 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $684 +$216 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $225 +$45 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 31 $1,648 −$1,648 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, May 31 $1,185 −$707 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 20h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $321 27h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $3 28h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $26 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 28h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $13 30h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $60 30h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $19 31h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $18 2d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 90¢ $450 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $169 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $127 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $43 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $27 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,817.85 · official $22,817.85 (match) · 3500 history records