Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9690…5eee
other · 60 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$14
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$6 +72%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $9 +$4 +48%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $15 +$8 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $40 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 01 $31 +$35 +113%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $20 +$28 +137%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 24 $18 +$6 +32%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $76 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $13,544 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 75% −$14
politics 12% −$8
other 9% −$8
sports 2% +$17
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 38h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 42h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $10 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $19 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $71 24d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $85 25d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $85 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 30d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -26.1%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 45 -5.4% -14.4% 24% 13% -9.1%
all 59 -4.5% -13.6% 24% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 10% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 8% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.77 · official $13.77 (match) · 280 history records