Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x968f…9e6f sports 65 markets active 15h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$327 (+31%) realized +$328 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%27W / 32L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$288
other 36% +$5
crypto 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +48.1% +34.0% 46% 44% +19.5%
≤30d 59 +48.1% +34.0% 46% 44% +19.5%
≤90d 59 +48.1% +34.0% 46% 44% +19.5%
all 59 +48.1% +34.0% 46% 44% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 44% +19.5%
10% +21.1% 42% +8.1%
15% +9.4% 39% -2.4%
20% -1.3% 32% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses27 / 32
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$8 +802%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$6 +550%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$26 +510%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$33 +650%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $60 +$13 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 15h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $10 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 42h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $20 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. BUY 13¢ $5 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 20¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $6.05 (match) · 106 history records