Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

96 0x968d…768d other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$151 (+28%) realized +$134 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+61.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+79.0%	+61.9%	67%	67%	+30.1%
≤30d	3	+79.0%	+61.9%	67%	67%	+30.1%
≤90d	3	+79.0%	+61.9%	67%	67%	+30.1%
all	3	+79.0%	+61.9%	67%	67%	+30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+61.9%	67%	+30.1%
10%	+46.4%	67%	+17.7%
15%	+32.3%	67%	+6.3%
20%	+19.3%	33%	-4.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +79% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$149 vs −$150 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$217

Realized+$134

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	60¢	70¢	$100	$117	+$17 (+17%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$152	−$150	-99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$86	+$252	+291%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$152	22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$86	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.73 · official $216.73 (match) · 7 history records