Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x968c…b92f crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$69
sports 3% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 50% -28.0%
≤30d 19 -27.9% -34.8% 47% 32% -29.0%
≤90d 24 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 38% -28.2%
all 24 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 38% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 38% -28.2%
10% -36.3% 25% -35.1%
15% -42.5% 21% -41.4%
20% -48.1% 17% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage34d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $85 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$35 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$10 +58%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $22 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -93%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 21 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $85 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $2 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records