Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9688…d044 crypto 554 markets active 8h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$184 (+1%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%179W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$37
14 days−$182
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$448
world 4% −$98
other 3% −$316
finance 1% −$19
sports 1% −$113
economics 0% −$24
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.4% -14.4% 31% 31% -12.8%
≤30d 179 -3.7% -12.9% 32% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 332 -19.7% -27.4% 27% 27% -27.0%
all 554 -4.6% -13.7% 32% 32% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 32% -10.1%
10% -21.9% 32% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 31% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 31% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$30 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses179 / 375
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage421d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$58 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$40 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$28 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$99 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$107 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$147 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$21 +198%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$17 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$45 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $84 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 35h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1283 history records