Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9688…fd45 sports 546 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$640 (-2%) realized −$638 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%228W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days−$27
14 days−$743
30 days−$901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$703
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 163 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -16.0%
≤90d 527 -9.1% -17.8% 41% 40% -13.0%
all 545 -5.7% -14.6% 42% 42% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 42% -11.2%
10% -22.8% 41% -19.7%
15% -30.3% 38% -27.5%
20% -37.1% 33% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$57 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$638
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses228 / 317
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions1
Markets (closed)545 / 546
History coverage102d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 40¢ 40¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $121 +$78 +64%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$49 +33%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $126 +$139 +110%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $81 +$42 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $78 −$4 -5%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $79 +$120 +151%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $77 +$90 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $57 +$23 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $253 −$249 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $40 +$155 +388%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $112 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$40 +101%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $54 +$119 +221%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $169 −$167 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $74 +$43 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $74 +$103 +139%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $165 +$37 +22%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $147 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $90 +$107 +119%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $108 +$42 +39%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $79 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $103 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $123 +$90 +74%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $16 +$113 +704%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $129 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $42 +$80 +188%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $202 +$88 +43%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $173 +$124 +72%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $66 +$79 +121%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $54 −$53 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $56 −$54 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $81 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $47 −$47 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $81 −$80 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$57 +56%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 05 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $200 2m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 40¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $121 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $200 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 75¢ $89 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 75¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL DXA Esports 99¢ $265 2h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY DXA Esports 47¢ $53 3h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY DXA Esports 47¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY DXA Esports 47¢ $67 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 61¢ $74 9h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 65¢ $81 9h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 63¢ $78 9h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL Lindorfitos 100¢ $200 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 39¢ $79 21h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $17 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $16 22h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 58¢ $85 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $82 25h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 19¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 19¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 19¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 19¢ $0 26h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 18¢ $18 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Infinite 99¢ $167 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $79 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 70¢ $57 46h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 45¢ $77 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $93 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.16 · official $114.16 (match) · 1398 history records