Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9684…9753 crypto 162 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-7%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%77W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$45
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +20.4% +8.9% 100% 100% +9.0%
≤30d 83 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 162 -5.6% -14.5% 48% 43% -22.6%
all 162 -5.6% -14.5% 48% 43% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -22.6%
10% -22.7% 31% -30.0%
15% -30.2% 20% -36.8%
20% -37.0% 14% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses77 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage27d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records