Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9684…bcd4
world · 62 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage517d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $69 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$3
politics 24% $0
other 17% −$9
sports 12% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $17 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $2 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $28 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $2 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $30 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $8 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $9 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $2 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $8 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $12 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -5.1% -14.2% 38% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 55 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 2% -9.7%
all 60 -4.0% -13.1% 28% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $0.00 · 217 history records