Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x9683…bcec crypto 938 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$318 (+5%) realized +$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate75%706W / 231L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$69
14 days+$115
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$101
other 18% +$145
sports 4% +$4
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 +2.7% -7.0% 74% 74% -4.4%
≤30d 623 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 75% -6.4%
≤90d 937 +4.3% -5.7% 75% 71% -5.7%
all 937 +4.3% -5.7% 75% 71% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 71% -5.7%
10% -14.7% 47% -14.7%
15% -22.9% 23% -22.9%
20% -30.5% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses706 / 231
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)937 / 938
History coverage76d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 937 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 70¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +228%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$5 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $2.66 (match) · 1891 history records