Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9681…95f3 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-25%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$461
sports 21% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -53.9%
≤30d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -53.9%
≤90d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -53.9%
all 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 22% -53.9%
10% -35.6% 22% -58.3%
15% -41.8% 22% -62.3%
20% -47.5% 22% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$74 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $62 −$58 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 −$42 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $229 −$226 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$23 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $167 −$164 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$153 +298%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 45m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 48m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 48m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $44 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $36 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records