Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x967f…3454 crypto 6 markets active 12h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+46%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip
Net edge+94%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$2
politics 27% +$1
world 21% +$3
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+93.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +114.2% +93.8% 100% 100% +82.1%
≤90d 3 +114.2% +93.8% 100% 100% +82.1%
all 3 +114.2% +93.8% 100% 100% +82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +93.8% 100% +82.1%
10% +75.2% 100% +64.7%
15% +58.3% 100% +48.8%
20% +42.8% 67% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage58d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Yes 45¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 45¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $1 +$2 +170%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? May 26 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 14d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 49¢ $1 29d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.82 · official $11.82 (match) · 7 history records