Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

96 0x967f…d694 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$61 (+19%) realized +$61 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown99%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$52

7 days−$97

14 days+$8

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-17.2%	-25.1%	35%	35%	-39.9%
≤30d	21	+0.0%	-9.5%	38%	38%	-7.2%
≤90d	21	+0.0%	-9.5%	38%	38%	-7.2%
all	21	+0.0%	-9.5%	38%	38%	-7.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	38%	-7.2%
10%	-18.2%	38%	-16.1%
15%	-26.1%	29%	-24.2%
20%	-33.3%	24%	-31.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +63% → late -57% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$61

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown99%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$29	+$7	+23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$1	-41%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$6	−$6	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$15	+$5	+32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	+$7	+138%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	+$23	+227%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$2	$0	-6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$36	+$16	+46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$60	−$60	-99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$14	+276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$31	+$105	+344%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	81¢	$29	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$41	2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	81¢	$16	30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	5¢	$1	31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	31h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	33¢	$20	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$15	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$12	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$34	3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	15¢	$5	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	36¢	$47	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	79¢	$60	3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records