Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x967e…2fb6 crypto 1586 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,062 (-12%) realized −$3,017 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%734W / 851L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$469
14 days−$3,471
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$955
weather 10% −$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -6.1% -15.1% 52% 52% +4.9%
≤30d 1585 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 1585 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.2%
all 1585 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 45% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 44% -22.4%
15% -31.7% 43% -29.9%
20% -38.4% 41% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3,017
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses734 / 851
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1585 / 1586
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Up 50¢ 8¢ $53 $8 −$45 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 3500 history records