Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x967d…ef6a other 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,589 (-3%) realized −$11,565 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%223W / 123L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,156per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$2,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,218
7 days+$1,928
14 days+$2,784
30 days+$3,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$5,441
sports 14% −$19,043
world 2% +$1,154
politics 2% +$900
crypto 0% −$43
economics 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.0% -5.0% 92% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 36 +5.5% -4.5% 94% 42% -5.8%
≤90d 36 +5.5% -4.5% 94% 42% -5.8%
all 346 -9.3% -18.0% 64% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -12.2%
10% -25.8% 27% -20.6%
15% -33.0% 14% -28.2%
20% -39.6% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$605 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$2,288
Realized−$11,565
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses223 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)346 / 349
History coverage408d
Avg bet$1,156
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 88¢ $940 $924 −$16 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 88¢ 88¢ $772 $768 −$4 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,805 +$174 +4%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $192 +$141 +73%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 21 $601 +$99 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $703 +$130 +18%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3,505 +$175 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,565 +$231 +15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,541 +$433 +10%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $4,338 +$299 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,403 +$102 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $853 +$102 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $603 +$103 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,017 +$202 +20%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $603 +$137 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $835 +$203 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,008 +$293 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,205 +$161 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,596 +$211 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,405 +$168 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,004 +$124 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,002 +$76 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,003 +$83 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1,003 +$95 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $302 +$82 +27%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3,814 +$9 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,801 +$45 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,510 +$378 +11%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3,377 +$138 +4%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3,322 +$78 +2%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $601 +$30 +5%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,503 +$91 +4%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,998 +$182 +6%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $170 +$36 +21%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $171 $0 -0%
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Feb 16 $293 +$56 +19%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 13 $3,246 −$3,246 -100%
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th Feb 13 $2,343 +$934 +40%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $5,760 −$5,760 -100%
Will Barnsley FC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $6,336 +$10 +0%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $6,134 +$256 +4%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $4,586 +$86 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $603 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $775 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $943 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 3h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 57¢ $192 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $4,805 4h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 85¢ $601 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $703 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $159 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $3,505 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $703 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $351 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $351 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $2,902 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $1,639 27h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $330 34h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $1,002 35h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $1,002 35h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $2,003 35h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,004 42h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $2,403 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $853 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $603 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1,017 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 81¢ $603 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $835 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $4,008 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,205 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1,596 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,288.42 · official $2,298.86 (match) · 856 history records