Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x967b…7498 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$9
other 25% −$5
world 13% −$2
tech 9% −$2
culture 8% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$816) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage88d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 26 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $770 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $781 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 21 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 19 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $126 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,175 35m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 44m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 51m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 57m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,206 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $865 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $237 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,103 2h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 21h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 21h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 21h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 21h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 21h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $14 21h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 22h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,135 22h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 22h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 22h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $20 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $76 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $26 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $25 40h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records