Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x9679…b7a6 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%27W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$105
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +11.4% +0.8% 75% 47% -11.4%
≤30d 36 +11.4% +0.8% 75% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 36 +11.4% +0.8% 75% 47% -11.4%
all 36 +11.4% +0.8% 75% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 47% -11.4%
10% -8.9% 33% -19.8%
15% -17.7% 17% -27.6%
20% -25.7% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$87 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses27 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $409 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $305 +$102 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $455 −$192 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $162 +$30 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $227 +$34 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $327 +$30 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $357 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $311 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $283 +$43 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $271 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $251 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$215 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records