Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9679…9315 sports 131 markets active 6d ago coverage 184d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,218 (-1%) realized −$2,218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%79W / 52L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,512per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$950est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 184d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,138
crypto 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +35.8% +22.8% 82% 76% -20.9%
≤30d 17 +35.8% +22.8% 82% 76% -20.9%
≤90d 26 +7.0% -3.2% 65% 62% -29.1%
all 131 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 55% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 55% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 48% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 40% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 27% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$785 vs −$1,274 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses79 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$950
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1,512
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7,112 −$7,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4,035 +$1,593 +40%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,011 +$600 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,009 +$1,150 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,190 +$620 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $889 +$302 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $708 +$182 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $493 +$214 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $1,315 +$124 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,947 −$1,928 -99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $100 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3,306 −$477 -14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,093 +$218 +7%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $101 +$35 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,776 +$787 +44%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $280 +$75 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,356 +$206 +15%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $6,192 −$6,076 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $575 −$560 -97%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $2,897 +$2,609 +90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $2,331 +$567 +24%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $10,999 −$10,040 -91%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $7,902 +$4,664 +59%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $140 −$138 -98%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $4,682 −$4,481 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $197 −$96 -49%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $940 −$940 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $495 +$315 +64%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 19 $1,000 −$385 -38%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $455 +$555 +122%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Feb 19 $156 +$50 +32%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 19 $54 +$13 +24%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 19 $60 +$12 +20%
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Yandex (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Gr Feb 19 $242 −$95 -39%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 19 $167 +$11 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 19 $431 −$169 -39%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Feb 18 $1,004 +$734 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Feb 18 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 18 $2,975 +$1,553 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Feb 18 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B Feb 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 18 $4,000 +$963 +24%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Feb 17 $3,000 +$1,473 +49%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Gr Feb 17 $20 −$10 -51%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $1,426 +$343 +24%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $3,671 +$3,457 +94%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Feb 17 $2,000 +$2,078 +104%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $1,355 −$1,355 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $7,112 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $5,628 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 71¢ $4,035 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $1,611 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $4,159 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $1,200 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $1,809 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,809 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $1,190 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,191 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 74¢ $889 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $889 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $708 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $708 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $493 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $492 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 56¢ $990 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 78¢ $957 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL KOLESIE 60¢ $947 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY KOLESIE 62¢ $303 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY KOLESIE 62¢ $1,011 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $1,011 6d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $115 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $1,011 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $2,665 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $2,029 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $164 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 41¢ $88 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 451 history records