Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9676…4374 crypto 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$516 (-5%) realized −$516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%140W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$14
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$94
crypto 20% −$379
politics 19% −$23
world 13% +$177
weather 10% −$62
tech 9% −$95
finance 3% −$23
sports 1% +$28
culture 1% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 7% -12.8%
≤30d 43 -14.9% -23.0% 37% 9% -14.6%
≤90d 98 -19.9% -27.6% 31% 15% -35.3%
all 239 -3.1% -12.4% 59% 36% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 36% -14.7%
10% -20.7% 31% -22.8%
15% -28.4% 8% -30.3%
20% -35.4% 5% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses140 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage132d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $18 +$31 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$19 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $0 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $24 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 04 $12 −$5 -39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 29 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 24 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? May 23 $1 $0 +14%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 21 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7? May 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 6? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 57¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 80¢ $40 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $36 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 69¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 65¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 58¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 60¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL No 65¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 984 history records