Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9675…03d8 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 28% $0
sports 14% −$69
politics 11% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 38 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 83 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage298d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $284 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $305 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $96 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $88 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $211 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $111 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $228 −$7 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $203 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $109 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $96 −$3 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $7 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $7 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $153 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $141 +$1 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $7 −$1 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $653 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $593 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,083 $0 +0%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $2 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $173 −$69 -40%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $191 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $95 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $105 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $105 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $17 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $94 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $95 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $87 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $88 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $106 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $104 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $103 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $103 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $75 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $77 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $58 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $65 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $96 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records