Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9671…ac8f other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$140 (-14%) realized −$142 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$184
crypto 32% −$320
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -23.4%
≤30d 25 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -23.4%
≤90d 25 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -23.4%
all 25 -58.6% -62.5% 20% 20% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 20% -23.4%
10% -66.1% 20% -30.7%
15% -69.4% 20% -37.4%
20% -72.4% 20% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$26 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage5d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -43%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$25 -62%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$174 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$32 +154%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 42h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 45h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.04 · official $17.04 (match) · 38 history records