Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x966f…13a7
sports · 308 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$91 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$100 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses154 / 129
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions25
Markets (closed)283 / 308
History coverage537d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 25 History 283 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$23
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 63¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Rune Eaters 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$1 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 +$3 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $6 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$6 +107%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +40%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $6 +$9 +144%
Alex Bolt vs. Keegan Smith: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $8 +$9 +112%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +28%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $8 +$2 +30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$92
other 12% $0
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 44¢ $1 2m
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 44¢ $2 11m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 28m
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 45m
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $3 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 52¢ $3 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 52¢ $1 7h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) BUY Sachko 11¢ $1 8h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) BUY Sachko 11¢ $0 8h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $3 8h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) BUY Sachko 16¢ $0 9h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) BUY Sachko 16¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 8¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 58% -7.1%
≤30d 257 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 56% -2.4%
≤90d 259 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 56% -0.5%
all 283 +4.4% -5.5% 54% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 52% -7.5%
10% -14.6% 49% -16.4%
15% -22.8% 36% -24.4%
20% -30.4% 27% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.55 · official $102.11 (match) · 778 history records