Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x966f…9fd4 other 38 markets active 16h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$5
other 23% +$4
world 20% −$8
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +9.7% -0.7% 82% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 28 +8.5% -1.8% 86% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 30 +9.1% -1.3% 87% 27% -6.2%
all 30 +9.1% -1.3% 87% 27% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 27% -6.2%
10% -10.8% 17% -15.2%
15% -19.4% 3% -23.4%
20% -27.3% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.29 per $1 lost it wins $34.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)30 / 38
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $0 $0 +50%
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +33%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? May 31 $10 +$2 +18%
New pandemic in 2026? May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 24 $26 +$1 +5%
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +2%
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 10 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 41h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 44h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 3d
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.08 · official $37.08 (match) · 123 history records