Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
96 0x966c…fd62 crypto 282 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,191 (+2%) realized +$8,223 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate91%256W / 24L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,310per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days+$59
14 days+$473
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$10,946
sports 1% −$175
other 0% −$41
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 55 -2.1% -11.4% 84% 9% -10.9%
≤90d 199 +17.6% +6.4% 91% 12% -7.4%
all 280 +13.8% +3.0% 91% 11% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 11% -6.9%
10% -6.9% 5% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 3% -23.9%
20% -24.1% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$222 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$3,263
Realized+$8,223
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses256 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)280 / 282
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$1,310
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $2,082 $2,061 −$21 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $1,213 $1,202 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,828 −$285 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,925 +$73 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $925 −$11 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3,649 +$67 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,018 +$77 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,888 +$59 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,616 +$79 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $836 +$96 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,833 +$163 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,234 +$48 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $3,153 +$62 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $113 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $223 +$4 +2%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $77 +$22 +29%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $94 +$15 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $254 +$10 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2,126 +$72 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $3,280 +$153 +5%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $334 +$32 +10%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $75 +$21 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $492 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3,427 +$140 +4%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $30 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $3,648 +$185 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $263 −$3 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,743 +$118 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $3,634 +$131 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $927 −$595 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $870 +$45 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $2,042 −$1,956 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,041 −$1,040 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $3,098 +$101 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $3,244 +$255 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $2,141 +$94 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $492 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $879 +$41 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $2,754 +$223 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $189 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $75 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $89 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $371 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $179 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $479 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,607 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $378 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $268 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $277 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $147 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 77¢ $151 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $193 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $211 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $607 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,263.00 · official $3,285.15 (match) · 3500 history records