Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9666…5135 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 54L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
world 36% +$26
politics 16% +$3
sports 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 4% -8.6%
≤90d 34 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 3% -9.0%
all 80 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage322d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $120 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $132 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $198 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $146 +$3 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $117 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $158 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 +$8 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $209 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $62 +$21 +34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $112 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $83 −$3 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $780 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $560 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $574 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $559 +$2 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 15 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $61 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 05 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $28 49m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $29 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $75 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $62 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $120 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $78 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $52 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $65 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $48 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $72 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $72 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $58 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $74 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $132 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $67 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records