Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x9664…17d3 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,044per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$87
economics 7% −$1
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 25 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$931) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $910 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $913 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $917 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,846 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $931 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $931 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $389 −$56 -14%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $989 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $990 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 47h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $898 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $899 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $898 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $899 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $898 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 13d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 15d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $907 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $908 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $907 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $908 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $904 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $905 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $909 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $910 24d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $912 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $913 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 32d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $914 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $916 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records