Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9664…ae7f
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$1
other 16% −$9
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 14h
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 14h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 36% +8.7%
≤30d 11 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 36% +8.7%
≤90d 11 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 36% +8.7%
all 11 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 36% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 36% +8.7%
10% -34.1% 36% -1.7%
15% -40.5% 36% -11.2%
20% -46.3% 27% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.66 · official $9.66 (match) · 22 history records