trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? | No | 74¢ | 80¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? | No | 72¢ | 66¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? | No | 98¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | +15% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 28? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 22? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 21? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 21? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? | May 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 20? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +12.4% | +1.7% | 100% | 36% | +1.7% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 95% | 29% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 95% | 29% | -5.4% |
| all | 21 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 95% | 29% | -5.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.6% | 29% | -5.4% |
| 10% | -15.6% | 10% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -23.7% | 5% | -22.7% |
| 20% | -31.2% | 0% | -30.3% |