trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $282 | $282 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $267 | $267 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Starmer out by June 15, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $97 | $97 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? | Jun 07 | $321 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? | Jun 02 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? | Jun 02 | $234 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 02 | $303 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte | May 26 | $221 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? | May 25 | $423 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 18 | $319 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $325 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | May 11 | $642 | +$1 | +0% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 15, 2026? | BUY No | 99¢ | $97 | 1h |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY No | 100¢ | $282 | 1h |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? | BUY No | 100¢ | $267 | 1h |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? | BUY No | 100¢ | $321 | 8d |
| Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? | BUY No | 100¢ | $107 | 16d |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | BUY Yes | 99¢ | $303 | 16d |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? | BUY No | 100¢ | $234 | 16d |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? | BUY Yes | 100¢ | $423 | 21d |
| Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte | BUY No | 100¢ | $221 | 21d |
| Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | BUY No | 100¢ | $319 | 32d |
| Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY No | 100¢ | $325 | 32d |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | BUY No | 100¢ | $642 | 65d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 9 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |