Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9658…e446 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$681 (-38%) realized −$534 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$43
politics 17% −$43
other 15% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 18 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 18 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 33% -7.9%
all 18 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 33% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 33% -7.9%
10% -21.2% 33% -16.7%
15% -28.8% 33% -24.8%
20% -35.8% 28% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$72 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$534
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Adam Walton 45¢ 46¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 41¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $96 −$95 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 22 $153 +$106 +70%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams Jun 21 $102 +$495 +482%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 −$85 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win on 20 Jun 20 $51 +$166 +324%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic win on 2 Jun 19 $46 +$51 +112%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$21 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $150 −$148 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$55 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 16 $186 −$96 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 45¢ $97 28m
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $96 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $59 15h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 98¢ $259 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams BUY 14¢ $51 28h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $151 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $154 29h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 57¢ $153 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $87 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams BUY 17¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $41 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win on 20 BUY 23¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $46 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic win on 2 BUY 46¢ $46 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $49 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on BUY 31¢ $24 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $150 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 38¢ $90 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A SELL 37¢ $90 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 38¢ $96 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.35 · official $87.79 · 30 history records