Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9656…221d politics 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$12
other 24% −$4
economics 10% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -4.4% -13.5% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage663d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 13h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 40d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 40d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 45d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 46d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 67d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 68d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 70d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 71d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 73d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 74d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 85d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 85d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 100d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 104d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $52 105d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $52 106d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $52 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $53 108d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records