Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9653…72f8 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$6
other 18% −$1
sports 9% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage89d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $63 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $129 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $60 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $60 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $60 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $60 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 12d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $60 12d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $60 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 14d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 14d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $60 19d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 19d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 22d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $60 22d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $61 24d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $28 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $61 31d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $61 31d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $61 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.28 · official $59.28 (match) · 194 history records