Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9653…06d5 crypto 824 markets active 17d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-5%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%386W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$134
sports 15% −$14
other 5% −$6
politics 2% −$7
world 2% +$17
tech 1% −$5
weather 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 68 -23.8% -31.1% 43% 31% -28.7%
≤90d 824 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 39% -18.6%
all 824 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 39% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 30% -26.4%
15% -37.3% 20% -33.5%
20% -43.5% 12% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses386 / 438
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 824
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 17d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1996 history records