Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9652…241f other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3
world 30% −$5
politics 22% −$3
economics 11% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.1% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$859) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,023
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage94d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $978 $977 −$0 (-0%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $975 −$1 -0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jun 26 $967 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? May 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $903 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $869 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $840 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $859 −$5 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 29 $128 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 24 $126 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $19 2m
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $910 10m
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $18 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $973 24m
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $9 38m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $950 49m
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 58m
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $754 1h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $212 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $967 1h
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 36d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 36d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 36d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 36d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 36d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $9 36d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 37d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $13 37d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $23 37d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $865 39d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $42 39d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $20 39d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $789 39d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 39d
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 39d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $12 39d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 39d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,022.75 · official $1,022.75 (match) · 74 history records