Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9648…70cf sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$199 (-39%) realized −$209 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$201
other 25% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -45.8% -51.0% 29% 27% -49.4%
≤30d 41 -45.8% -51.0% 29% 27% -49.4%
≤90d 41 -45.8% -51.0% 29% 27% -49.4%
all 41 -45.8% -51.0% 29% 27% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.0% 27% -49.4%
10% -55.7% 24% -54.2%
15% -60.0% 20% -58.6%
20% -63.9% 17% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 60¢ 81¢ $27 $36 +$10 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $12 +$3 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$21 +291%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $14 +$14 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 +$5 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Scotland (-3.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 60¢ $27 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $16 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 89¢ $15 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 69¢ $12 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $10 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $8 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 22h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Paraguay $3 22h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay $5 22h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $14 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 23h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $23 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Scotland 100¢ $16 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 25h
Spread: Scotland (-3.5) BUY Scotland $3 27h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland $5 27h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland $5 27h
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $11 27h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 36h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $5 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.45 · official $36.46 (match) · 58 history records