Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9648…5ac5 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% $0
other 24% −$9
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -23.1%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -23.1%
≤90d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -23.1%
all 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 25% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 25% -30.5%
15% -27.8% 17% -37.2%
20% -34.8% 17% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$7 -32%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +143%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$24 +468%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $6 53m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $8 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 2h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $6 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 95¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis $2 3h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 4h
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 8h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records