Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9647…4d48 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$97 (-0%) realized +$691 · open −$788
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 38L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$772per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,102
7 days−$10,853
14 days−$10,853
30 days−$10,853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,131
other 0% +$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -49.9% -54.7% 24% 24% -74.7%
≤30d 29 -49.9% -54.7% 24% 24% -74.7%
≤90d 73 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 47% -14.4%
all 74 +9.8% -0.7% 49% 47% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 47% -9.6%
10% -10.2% 46% -18.2%
15% -18.9% 45% -26.1%
20% -26.8% 43% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early +57% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$719 vs −$683 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$691
Unrealized−$788
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage92d
Avg bet$772
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 46¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$183 +177%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $104 −$101 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $381 +$341 +90%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $243 −$239 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $109 +$137 +126%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $499 +$656 +132%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Brazil vs. France end in a draw? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Jun 15 $600 +$320 +53%
Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 Jun 15 $450 −$450 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $626 −$626 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Patrick Kypson Jun 15 $880 −$880 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Timofey Skat Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Dubrovnik: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 15 $3,560 −$3,560 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $121 −$119 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 +$319 +157%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $305 +$49 +16%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini Mar 31 $405 +$479 +118%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Stefanos Sakellaridi Mar 30 $1,840 −$1,347 -73%
Knicks vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5 Mar 30 $1,157 −$862 -74%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Ilya Ivashka vs Nicolai Budkov Kj Mar 29 $5,000 −$4,788 -96%
Alicante: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Mar 29 $900 −$879 -98%
Yokkaichi: Rio Noguchi vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Mar 29 $500 +$443 +88%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Mar 29 $500 +$541 +108%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $300 +$310 +103%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5) Mar 28 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $122 +$294 +241%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Aliona Bolsova vs Ekaterine Mar 28 $393 +$288 +73%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jone Mar 28 $1,800 +$1,366 +76%
Split: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Tom Gentzsch Mar 28 $18 −$9 -51%
Yokkaichi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Hayato Matsuoka Mar 28 $1,000 +$243 +24%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 28 $2,000 +$1,372 +69%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 28 $873 −$857 -98%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 27 $200 −$100 -50%
Alicante: Pedro Martinez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 27 $1,700 +$1,868 +110%
Naples: Vitaliy Sachko vs Federico Cina Mar 27 $800 −$545 -68%
Yokkaichi: Hayato Matsuoka vs Soon-Woo Kwon Mar 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Split: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Alexander Vasilev Mar 27 $300 −$49 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 46¢ $385 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $163 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $153 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $102 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $286 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $103 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $2 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $104 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $381 17h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 16¢ $40 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $203 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $246 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $109 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 36h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 99¢ $1,155 46h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 42¢ $499 46h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 31¢ $204 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 48¢ $121 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $523 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $204 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $106 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 48¢ $354 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 40¢ $305 2d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 64¢ $3,560 77d
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Patrick Kypson BUY Patrick Kypson 40¢ $880 77d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $884 77d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Ignacio Buse 45¢ $405 77d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Stefanos Sakellaridi SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 4¢ $90 79d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Stefanos Sakellaridi BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ $1,300 79d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Stefanos Sakellaridi SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 42¢ $403 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 184 history records