Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
96 0x9645…4216 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$8
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$8
other 26% +$33
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 41% -7.8%
≤30d 38 +13.7% +2.9% 47% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 38 +13.7% +2.9% 47% 42% -6.5%
all 38 +13.7% +2.9% 47% 42% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 42% -6.5%
10% -7.0% 39% -15.5%
15% -16.0% 37% -23.6%
20% -24.2% 34% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 54¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$25 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$17 -33%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$7 +245%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$20 +212%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -91%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$10 +127%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +178%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 −$3 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +122%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 +$19 +96%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$3 -36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$41 +100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 +$14 +117%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +614%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 37¢ $4 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 28¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 20¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 47¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $48 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $6 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $0 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $8 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $5 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $10 36h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $3 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 2¢ $1 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $8 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $8 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 81 history records