Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9642…1ee9 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$193 (-32%) realized −$188 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$186
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$186
sports 10% −$5
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-79.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -90.9% -91.7% 7% 7% -59.4%
≤30d 17 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -54.1%
≤90d 17 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -54.1%
all 17 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.5% 12% -54.1%
10% -81.4% 6% -58.5%
15% -83.2% 6% -62.5%
20% -84.9% 6% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $126 +$19 +15%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$20 -78%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$30 +149%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $44 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.38 · official $189.23 · 25 history records