Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9640…abbb sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$60 (-9%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$36
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$28
other 13% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -30.6% -37.2% 33% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 19 -34.3% -40.5% 32% 32% -16.3%
≤90d 19 -34.3% -40.5% 32% 32% -16.3%
all 19 -34.3% -40.5% 32% 32% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 32% -16.3%
10% -46.2% 32% -24.3%
15% -51.4% 26% -31.6%
20% -56.2% 26% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$23 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage9d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $46 +$36 +78%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $76 +$83 +109%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$23 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$33 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$44 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$24 +34%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $82 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $20 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $39 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $71 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records