Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x963f…b421 crypto 517 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (251 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,149 (-28%) realized −$7,154 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%200W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day250.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,359
7 days−$4,989
14 days−$3,996
30 days−$3,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3,394
sports 1% +$1,143
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (251 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 540 -38.9% -44.8% 24% 23% -42.5%
≤30d 703 -27.6% -34.5% 28% 28% -25.5%
≤90d 703 -27.6% -34.5% 28% 28% -25.5%
all 703 -27.6% -34.5% 28% 28% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 28% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 27% -32.7%
15% -46.5% 26% -39.2%
20% -51.7% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$29 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$7,154
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses200 / 503
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)703 / 517
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day250.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+47%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +8543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$21 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$239 +667%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 76¢ $397 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.05 · official $27.39 · 3500 history records