Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x963e…8cbf other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-6%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%33W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$39
sports 23% +$26
tech 3% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -39.3% -45.1% 25% 25% -35.6%
≤30d 43 -10.1% -18.7% 28% 28% -26.3%
≤90d 121 -8.1% -16.8% 27% 27% -16.2%
all 121 -8.1% -16.8% 27% 27% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 27% -16.2%
10% -24.8% 27% -24.2%
15% -32.0% 26% -31.5%
20% -38.7% 24% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses33 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage91d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +143%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +456%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$3 +217%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$2 +124%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will National Bank of Egypt Club win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 +$3 +119%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 +$2 +97%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 +$4 +312%
Will El Ittihad SC El Iskandary win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$6 +462%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 +$4 +348%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$3 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 9¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $1 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $0 26h
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 10d
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15d
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 54¢ $5 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 16d
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 21d
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 22d
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22d
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 22d
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 22d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 23d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 281 history records