trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $178 | $186 | +$8 (+4%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $86 | $84 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $51 | $81 | +$30 (+58%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 60¢ | $37 | $36 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 40¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$5 | -52% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $53 | +$54 | +101% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $32 | −$18 | -57% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $88 | +$31 | +35% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 31 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $109 | +$77 | +70% |
| Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) | May 24 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? | May 24 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +6.7% | -3.4% | 50% | 50% | +20.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 38% | 38% | +24.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 38% | 38% | +24.1% |
| all | 8 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 38% | 38% | +24.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.5% | 38% | +24.1% |
| 10% | -29.0% | 38% | +12.2% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 38% | +1.4% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 25% | -8.6% |