Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x9639…4a68 sports 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$37 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%94W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2
other 16% +$25
crypto 1% −$4
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +6.4%
≤30d 22 +10.5% -0.1% 50% 50% -7.8%
≤90d 29 +5.4% -4.7% 55% 52% -7.5%
all 187 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -10.6%
10% -26.7% 29% -19.2%
15% -33.8% 22% -27.0%
20% -40.3% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses94 / 93
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)187 / 198
History coverage268d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $104 $125 +$21 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $61 $75 +$14 (+23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 30 $34 +$11 +30%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$4 +125%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +94%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Pacers vs. Nets Apr 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $6 +$2 +41%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $5 −$4 -84%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 01 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2 $0 -9%
Suns vs. Magic Mar 31 $5 +$1 +22%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -81%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $5 +$1 +21%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 29 $5 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 28 $2 +$1 +60%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $3 $0 +11%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 26 $5 $0 +9%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 26 $6 +$1 +22%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 25 $5 $0 +2%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $3 +$1 +40%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 13m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 47h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $1 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.66 · official $252.72 (match) · 531 history records