Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9636…546a world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$60
14 days+$57
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$144
tech 4% +$15
crypto 4% +$69
other 3% +$4
politics 3% +$69
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.1% -6.8% 56% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 14 +4.9% -5.0% 57% 50% -5.6%
≤90d 54 +4.7% -5.3% 61% 43% -9.3%
all 55 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 42% -9.4%
10% -14.4% 29% -18.0%
15% -22.7% 24% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage90d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $70 $47 −$23 (-33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 57¢ 66¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 38¢ 7¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $120 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $140 +$25 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $140 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $230 +$28 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $30 +$6 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $35 −$11 -32%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $20 −$3 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $90 +$21 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 −$44 -44%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3PM ET Apr 29 $103 +$66 +64%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 29 $228 −$31 -14%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $211 −$191 -90%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $149 +$61 +41%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $116 +$22 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 24 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $180 +$25 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $127 −$46 -36%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 17 $88 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? Apr 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 12 $1 $0 +49%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $135 +$69 +51%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 08 $100 +$35 +35%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 07 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $5 +$10 +200%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $10 +$4 +42%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $40 +$11 +27%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? Apr 04 $15 +$7 +44%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $25 +$21 +84%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $322 +$14 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $192 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $296 −$6 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 26h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $118 26h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 72¢ $22 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $30 31h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $77 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $36 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $70 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $40 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $107 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $114 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 66¢ $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $24 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $18 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.50 · official $83.50 (match) · 162 history records