Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9632…4f7c other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 83% −$1
other 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 6 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 6 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.7%
all 6 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -11.7%
10% -24.4% 0% -20.2%
15% -31.7% 0% -27.9%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $0 $0 -7%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? Jun 21 $1 $0 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $30 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $31 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 4h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $0 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $5 28h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 41¢ $5 35h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 38h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 38h
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records